One year ago today, I asked the readers of
kottke.org to become micropatrons and support my efforts in producing the site for a year.
So the year is up and I've decided to take the site in a new direction.
Kottke.org will now start advertising to generate revenue. I have become
increasingly addicted to crank in this past year[1], and the micropatron model was incapable of
generating enough revenue to support my habit and still allow the time to actually consume all the crank I
require to stay effed-up enough to maintain.
Starting today, kottke.org will become an ad sponsored site.
I feel the advertising model will provide the revenue and the connections[2] to acquire and consume all the crystal I need.
I'd like to take this moment to thank the people at the Golden Palace internet casino, providing quality service for internet gamblers everywhere[3].
[1] Actually, I have been addicted for the past three years, but my habit has really stepped up in the past nine months, and I have been unable to supplement enough of the revenue I need by turning tricks.
[2] all ad and marketing people are meth addicts.
[3] This has been a paid advertisement by Golden Palace.
- Who knew David Sedaris' family was so full of art experts? "I dont know if you realize it, but it seems that Picasso is actually Spanish." #
- NPR report on The Elder Wisdom Circle, a group of seniors who use the combined wisdom of their ages to help people who write in with questions. What a nice idea. I love the response to the first letter..."if she really was serious about you, boy, oh boy, she would be running to the court to get a separation and divorce". Here's the EWC web site. (thx, jeff) #
- Justin reports on his family's results of a neat project called the Geneographic Project, co-produced by National Geographic and IBM. If you purchase a testing kit, they'll trace the specific genetic markers of your ancestors back to (possibly) our common African root. #
- An Antarctic project has detected the first neutrinos observed outside of a laboratory setting. #
- The fashion industry doesn't try to control its creativity the way that the music and film industries do. "The fashion world recognizes that creativity cannot be bridled and controlled and that obsessive quests to do so will only diminish its vitality. Other content industries would do well to heed this wisdom." #
- A Crash Course On Complexity, Emergence and Collective Intelligence. #
- Debate between Malcolm Gladwell and Adam Gopnik on the health care systems in the US and Canada. "Adam Gopnik and Malcolm Gladwell have both lived in Canada and developed strong feelings about socialized health care -- pro and con." #
- Modern mathematical proofs are so complex that it's becoming impossible to prove them with absolute certainty. About a 1980 proof, an expert says "twenty-five years later we're still not sure if it's correct or not. We sort of think it is, but no one's ever written down the complete proof". I don't think I heard my math teachers ever say "sort of". #
- Representation of the London Tube map if the stations were sponsored by products or companies. I love the Pizza Hutney, Upministry of Sound, and iPoddington stops. Rather DFWesque. (via bb) #
Benford's Law describes a curious phenomenon about the counterintuitive distribution of numbers in sets of non-random data:
A phenomenological law also called the first digit law, first digit phenomenon, or leading digit phenomenon. Benford's law states that in listings, tables of statistics, etc., the digit 1 tends to occur with probability ~30%, much greater than the expected 11.1% (i.e., one digit out of 9). Benford's law can be observed, for instance, by examining tables of logarithms and noting that the first pages are much more worn and smudged than later pages (Newcomb 1881). While Benford's law unquestionably applies to many situations in the real world, a satisfactory explanation has been given only recently through the work of Hill (1996).
I first heard of Benford's Law in connection with the IRS using it to detect tax fraud. If you're cheating on your taxes, you might fill in amounts of money somewhat at random, the distribution of which would not match that of actual financial data. So if the digit "1" shows up on Al Capone's tax return about 15% of the time (as opposed to the expected 30%), the IRS can reasonably assume they should take a closer look at Mr. Capone's return.
Since I installed Movable Type 3.15 back in March 2005, I have been using its "post to the future" option pretty regularly to post my remaindered links...and have been using it almost exclusively for the last few months[1]. That means I'm saving the entries in draft, manually changing the dates and times, and then setting the entries to post at some point in the future. For example, an entry with a timestamp like "2006-02-20 22:19:09" when I wrote the draft might get changed to something like "2006-02-21 08:41:09" for future posting at around 8:41 am the next morning. The point is, I'm choosing basically random numbers for the timestamps of my remaindered links, particularly for the hours and minutes digits. I'm "cheating"...committing post timestamp fraud.
That got me thinking...can I use the distribution of numbers in these post timestamps to detect my cheating? Hoping that I could (or this would be a lot of work wasted), I whipped up a MT template that produced two long strings of numbers: 1) one of all the hours and minutes digits from the post timestamps from May 2005 to the present (i.e. the cheating period), 2) and one of all the hours and minutes digits from Dec 2002 - Jan 2005 (i.e. the control group). Then I used a PHP script to count the numbers in each string, dumped the results into Excel, and graphed the two distributions together. And here's what they look like, followed by a table of the values used to produce the chart:
| Digit | 5/05-now | 12/02-1/05 | Difference |
| 1 | 31.76% | 33.46% | 1.70% |
| 2 | 11.76% | 14.65% | 2.89% |
| 3 | 10.30% | 9.96% | 0.34% |
| 4 | 10.44% | 9.58% | 0.86% |
| 5 | 10.02% | 10.52% | 0.51% |
| 6 | 4.83% | 5.40% | 0.57% |
| 7 | 5.66% | 4.96% | 0.70% |
| 8 | 7.62% | 4.65% | 2.97% |
| 9 | 7.60% | 6.81% | 0.79% |
As expected, 1 & 2 show up less than they should during the cheating period, but not overly so[2]. The real fingerprint of the crime lies with the 8s. The number 8 shows up during the cheating period ~64% more than expected. After thinking about it for awhile, I came up with an explanation for the abundance of 8s. I often schedule posts between 8am-9am so that there's stuff on the site for the early-morning browse and I usually finish off the day with something between 6pm-7pm (18:00 - 19:00). Not exactly the glaring evidence I was expecting, but you can still tell.
The obvious next question is, can this technqiue be utilized for anything useful? How about detecting comment, trackback. or ping spam? I imagine IPs and timestamps from these types of spam are forged to at least some extent. The difficulties are getting enough data to be statistically significant (one forged timestamp isn't enough to tell anything) and having "clean" data to compare it against. In my case, I knew when and where to look for the cheating...it's unclear if someone who didn't know about the timestamp tampering would have been able to detect it. I bet companies with services that deal with huge amounts of spam (Gmail, Yahoo Mail, Hotmail, TypePad, Technorati) could use this technique to filter out the unwanted emails, comments, trackbacks, or pings...although there's probably better methods for doing so.
[1] I've been doing this to achieve a more regular publishing schedule for kottke.org. I typically do a lot of work in the evening and at night and instead of posting all the links in a bunch from 10pm to 1am, I space them out over the course of the next day. Not a big deal because increasing few of the links I feature are time-sensitive and it's better for readers who check back several times a day for updates...they've always got a little something new to read.
[2] You'll also notice that the distributions don't quite follow Benford's Law either. Because of the constraints on which digits can appear in timestamps (e.g. you can never have a timestamp of 71:95), some digits appear proportionally more or less than they would in statistical data. Here's the distribution of digits of every possible time from 00:00 to 23:59:
1 - 25.33
2 - 17.49
3 - 12.27
4 - 10.97
5 - 10.97
6 - 5.74
7 - 5.74
8 - 5.74
9 - 5.74
- Killing female fetuses in the womb is becoming more of a problem in Punjab, India. "In the last one year in [Dhanduha village], against 12 boys only three girls were born, and in the last five years, 34 baby boys were born as against only 18 girls. A sex ratio of just 529:1000!" (via 3qd) #
- Fun analysis of a moviegoer's six years of ticket stubs. You can see the ticket prices rise over the years, but what's really interesting is the correspondence between the ticket price and his opinion of the movie...he ended up paying more for the movies he really liked. #
- Edward Burtynsky and World Changing have collaborated on a video using his photographs to depict humanity's impact on the planet. Burtynsky has pledged $50,000 from his 2005 TED Prize (as has the Sapling Foundation) to match donations to World Changing. More information on the TED blog. #
- Some elderly Americans are foregoing retirement homes in favor of living permanently on cruise ships, in part because they are cheaper and the service is better. (thx cathy) #
- Decent article about blogs (a rarity these days) from the Financial Times. "Each blogger was his, or her, own printing press, spontaneously exercising their freedom to criticise. Which is great. But along the way, opinion became the new pornography on the internet." #
- Favorite new word (this week): snowclone, a description of "a type of formula-based cliche which uses an old idiom in a new context". Like "____ is the new ____", "____, now more than ever", or "all your ____ are belong to us". (via anil) #
- George W. Bush makes a guest post on Design Observer: "I don't know much about designing rugs. So I [...] delegated. That's one of the things you do in decision-making." #
As far as I'm concerned, Will Ferrell et al., Jon Stewart, or the Farrelly brothers have nothing on Jane Austen when it comes to humor (or would that be humour?). And this latest film adaptation of Pride & Prejudice sticks closely to the book and strikes just the right tone. The book, of course, has lots more goodies in it, but as an abridged version the film couldn't be better. Also, since it was published back in 1813, P&P is in the public domain and can be read online for free.
- Exciting new Web 2.0 product: JusFlam is "the social network for people who enjoy Jesus, and flames, and rotating stuff". The beta seems to be down at the moment...it's throwing a "due to overwhelming server load, that is due to underwhelming development methodologies and system architecture, due to limited resources, due to limited business direction, due to giving away a complex web service for free with no feasible plan for revenue generation besides 'getting bought by google or maybe yahoo', we are unable to process your request at this time" error. #
- This guy has had enough of the pre-exit receipt checking at Best Buy (you're under no legal obligation to comply) but is hassled by Best Buy employees about seeing his receipt all the way out to the parking lot. #
- Rob at Cockeyed is building a photographic height/weight grid, effectively a catalog of people's body types. Description and call for entries here. #
- The history of the NBA logo...and yes, that's Jerry West. (via th) #
- My pal Judith lost her camera on vacation in Hawaii and tried to make the best of the situation by starting a project using other people's Flickr photos to reconstruct a trip journal. Now, a family has found her camera but won't give it back to her because they don't want to take it away from the 9 yo kid that found it. "We can't tell him that he has to give it up. Also we had to spend a lot of money to get a charger and a memory card". The dishonesty displayed here is maddening. #
- New trailer for A Scanner Darkly, Richard Linklater's adaptation of Philip K. Dick's novel. (via rw) #
Wes Felter calls for the ass fact-checking of William Safire over the latter's article in the NY Times about blog jargon and he's not wrong. Wes correctly notes the etymology of "weblog" and "blog" and hopefully the people responsible for things like the AP Style Guide, English dictionaries, and influential columns like On Language will, at some point, do the 20 minutes of research necessary to convince them and the unwashed journalist masses that "blog" is not and was never short for "web log".
Safire also gets tripped up on where the word "blogosphere" came from. While William Quick's usage in 2002 popularized the term, Brad Graham first used the term in 1999.
...Jotspot, Frappr, Yedda, Writeboard, Kanoodle, Memeorandum, SuprGlu, 43 Things, Findory, Clipmarks, Wayfaring, AllPeers, Zoozio, Ziggs, Wink, Reddit, Digg, Gumshoo, Ta-da List, Wikipedia, Pubsub, Ookles, YubNub, Bloop, FeedBurner, Bloglines, Gabbr, Gcast, Blinkx, Openomy, Riffs, Myspace, Pandora, LookLater, 30 Boxes, Rollyo, Squishr, Plazes, Noodly, Wondir, Protopage, Blummy, Jots, Vizu, Del.icio.us, Tagyu, Writely, Simpy, Gtalkr, Truveo, EgoSurf, Mozy, Quimble, Basecamp, Squidoo, NewsVine, Clipfire, Lookster, Netvibes, Facebook, Goowy, Yelp, Magnolia, Technorati, Gmail, Feedmarker, Mercora, StumbleUpon, and SpinSpy all have in common?
They're all web sites. The truth was staring us right in the face all this time.
ps. Damn Movable Type and its restriction on the number of characters I can put in the title of a post. varchar(255) my ass.
Recent moving picture viewings:
more movies »
- Gold medal winning mogulist Dale Begg-Smith, described during the Olympic telecast as a successful entrepreneur, was actually a bigwig at a spyware company. Business aside, his final run wasn't good enough to warrant the gold. (via /.) #
- Thomas Keller's Bouchon Bakery is set to open in the Time Warner Center on March 6. They're going to "serve various breads, pastries, and cookies of the highest quality" as well as "sandwiches, salads, soups, and even hand-made chocolates". #
- Some big brands like Coke, McDonald's, and Disney are growing more unpopular with "global teens". "What applies to young people is 'Did it break? And did my friends say it was cool?' [It's an] opinion process that goes on through IMs and text-messaging, and it applies to everything from movies to cargo pants." (thx, stan) #
- Book covers inspired by Rene Magritte art. (via do) #
- How to choose steak at the supermarket. "If the words 'chuck' or 'round' are in the name of the steak, it will need to be marinated and then slowly cooked in liquid to be tender." #
- "If I were told that I had one last meal before I died and then I was given the choice between a super chic 15 course degustation meal cooked by Thomas Keller, Tetsuya Wakuda, Ferran Adria and Joel Robuchon and a perfect cheeseburger, the choice would be easy. I'd pick the burger without a moment's hesitation." #
- The Remembering Site is a place to create and share personal histories. The questions the site asks when recording your rememberances are quite extensive (here's a sample biography/history)...what a great way to record the details of your life for your family and loved ones. #
- A collection of "stupid nude calendars". I confess that I found this while looking for photos from the racy curling calendar...but I came away empty-handed. (Only slightly NSFW.) #
- The Brokeback Mountain humor industry is in full swing these days, but I thought this one was pretty funny: Weekly Grocery Lists for Ennis Del Mar and Jack Twist, Summer 1962. (via lia) #
Earlier today I posted a link to Frank Bruni's new food blog over at the NY Times. At the same time, I added a comment to this post about how restaurant reservations work here in NYC. I went back to see if there was any further conversation and my comment had been deleted (or had otherwise disappeared). Not such a good start. I've resubmitted the comment...we'll see how long it lasts.
Church of the Customer takes a look at how a Northern California restaurant called Cyrus competes with The French Laundry in attracting local customers, particularly those from wineries with big expense accounts for entertaining clients:
1. Match your competitor's exceptional quality.
The food at both restaurants was cooked perfectly and beautifully presented. Both delivered flawless service. By matching the quality of its better-known competitor, Cyrus removes the primary barriers of opposition.
2. Allow your customers to customize.
The French Laundry offers three prix-fixe menus of nine courses each. Cyrus allows its customers to choose their number of courses and the dishes.
Local competition still matters. You usually think of restaurants like The French Laundry as competing on a national or international level. Over the years, Keller's flagship has made several short lists of the best restaurants in the world. But as this article demonstrates, having to compete for the same pool of local customers can drive competitors to achieve a high level of excellence, higher perhaps than they would have achieved without that competition, and that excellence could lead to wider recognition. Even companies like Google, Yahoo, Microsoft, and Amazon who compete on a global level and don't interact with their customers face-to-face still have to vie with each other for local resources, particularly employees.
- Very unflattering (and excellent) article about Michael Jordan, written during his second (third?) comeback with the Washington Wizards. (via truehoop) #
- Christopher Hitchens takes Garrison Keillor to task for slamming Bernard-Henri Levy's take on the US, American Vertigo. I'm patiently waiting for someone to take on Hitchens on Keillor on Levy on America. #
- Presenting the Bible's Book of Genesis in rap songs. For instance, the song for Genesis 21 -- which tells the story of Isaac and Ishmael -- is Big Poppa by Notorious B.I.G. #
- Infographic of the connections between "3 celebrities, 35 corporations, 40 subsidiaries and more than 300 brands". For a closer look, check out the larger version. #
- Google buys Measure Map, Jeff Veen leaves Adaptive Path to work at Google. #
- Marc Andreessen is annoyed by his customers coming to visit the office (the nerve!) so a few of his customers are using his software to organize and pay him a visit tomorrow. My long-held opinion: Marc Andreessen = putz. #
- CNN International redesigned their on-screen graphics. You can see the definite influence of lo-fi web design here...those screens look like a web site. I'd love to see these in action.
Update: A UK firm called Kemistry did the work. #
- Camino, a web browser for the Mac, finally goes 1.0. It seems like 5 years have passed since I switched away from Camino. I loved it then and I'd switch back in a second if had the features of and was being developed to the extent of Firefox or Safari. (via df) #
- Interview with David Remnick about the revitalization of the New Yorker and what exactly it is that makes that magazine unique. "My principle in the magazine - and I am not being arrogant - is that I don't lose sleep trying to figure what the reader wants. I don't do surveys. I don't check the mood of the consumers. I do what I want, what interests me and a small group of editors that influences the way of the magazine." (thx, george) #
- The Dumpster -- a new project by Golan Levin -- is a "portrait of romantic breakups collected from blogs in 2005. #
- Ten successes that shaped the 20th Century American city. #
Through an improbable series of clerical errors, I am scheduled to participate in a "keynote conversation" about professional blogging with Heather Armstrong at SXSW in Austin, Texas next month. Armstrong, so the story goes, got fired for blogging at work and was rewarded with a loving husband, cutie-pie daughter, photogenic dog, several television appearances, hundreds of media mentions, and a new job -- talking about poop all day -- that supports her entire family. And so but by the way, she's also headlining the entire SXSW Festival along with Rock and Roll Hall of Famer Neil Young. Which makes me approximately chopped liver. When I told Meg about the headlining thing, she said, "boy, that conversation had better be good". Pressure's on, Heather.
To sum up, a piece of chopped liver will be having a chat with a nice lady from Utah next month about blogging for groceries. Should be fun.
I did some skiing last week up in Vermont and took some videos with my phone on the slopes. The quality isn't great, but hopefully you'll get the gist.
A short clip of me skiing through the trees:
Riding the chair lift:
And one of me skiing behind Meg:
The motion in the last one reminds me of Quake...like I'm chasing after her with a railgun or something.
You'll find more in the archives or you may peruse the books, movies, remaindered links, or further afield separately.
